Post-election optimism: Retail investors predict stronger stock market in 2025 as they enjoy immediate gains & set sights on crypto
Overwhelming majority believe Trump will be good for the stock market amid bitcoin and S&P 500 surge
- Overwhelming majority of retail investors (72%) believe Trump’s win is good for the stock market as it will boost investor confidence, and believe the stock market will be higher 12 months from now (71%)
- Majority (72%) have already seen immediate gains since Trump’s win – over a third (37%) have seen returns of 6% or more so far
- Total amounts to invest are up, 54% have over $10,000 to invest in the year ahead compared to 45% last quarter
- Crypto optimism peaks amid bitcoin record highs – 67% think bitcoin will be higher 12 months from now, up from 59% last quarter
- Over a quarter of retail investors (26%) plan to invest in crypto market in the next year despite absence so far in 2024, up from 21% last quarter
14.11.24 – LONDON: Retail investors are feeling optimistic post-election, with a strong majority expecting the stock market to surge in the coming year and looking toward the crypto market, according to Finimize’s latest Modern Investor Pulse survey, out today.
Financial information platform Finimize surveyed 2,000 retail investors and found that 72% believe Trump’s election win will be beneficial for the stock market, citing renewed confidence in the market outlook. Additionally, a significant portion (71%) of investors anticipate that the stock market will continue its upward trajectory over the next 12 months. Since the election, 72% of respondents have already recorded portfolio gains, with over a third (37%) seeing returns of 6% or more.
Post-election optimism and investment readiness
Following the election results, retail investors appear well-positioned to increase their market presence. The survey found a rise in the amount retail investors are prepared to commit, with 54% now holding over $10,000 to invest over the next year, up from 45% last quarter. Stocks remain the leading asset class of choice, yet cryptocurrency has unsurprisingly surged in interest as bitcoin reaches record levels.
Crypto market poised for growth
Investor confidence in cryptocurrency is at an all-time high, with 67% of retail investors believing bitcoin will be valued higher in 12 months, marking an 8% increase from last quarter. Over a quarter (26%) now plan to allocate part of their portfolio to crypto assets within the next year, a notable rise from 21% in the previous quarter.
Carl Hazeley, Chief Analyst at Finimize said: “Retail investors are embracing a sense of market optimism in the wake of the election. We’re seeing strong confidence in traditional equities, supported by an increased appetite for crypto, which reflects an exciting shift in investor priorities and risk appetites.”
“With the majority of retail investors anticipating further stock market gains and expressing heightened interest in crypto, our findings indicate a dynamic investment landscape heading into 2025. It’s clear that retail investors are adapting to the current political and economic climate while broadening their strategies in lock-step with professionals.”
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About the Modern Investor Pulse
The Modern Investor Pulse is a quarterly survey capturing insights from Finimize’s global community of retail investors. For access to the full survey data, please reach out to our press team.
About Finimize
Finimize empowers retail investors with concise insights from world-class analysts. With over two million subscribers to its newsletter and mobile app, Finimize boasts one of the largest retail investor communities globally. Over 70,000 members attend their events annually. Finimize for Business, launched last year, supports over 350 financial institutions in engaging modern investors and creating content that drives engagement, revenue, and retention. Through its network of partners, Finimize content reaches over 40 million individual investors worldwide.
Shining a Spotlight on the Client Commission Costs of CSA/Soft Dollar Aggregation Platforms across Asset Owners, Asset Managers, and CSA Brokers
Commission Sharing Arrangement (CSA) aggregation platforms offered by brokers and some technology firms are a well-accepted solution to the management of multiple CSA/soft dollar trading relationships. However, most of these solutions are characterized by excessive, unpredictable, and opaque client commission costs, leading to volatile and unnecessary charges on client commissions, asset manager resource allocations, and CSA broker revenues.
CSAs and Aggregation Platforms
CSAs allow asset managers to generate trading commissions for the payment of third-party research. They are a very significant portion of the buy-side equity commission wallet, and most industry estimates peg CSAs at over 40% of total buy-side commissions. Four out of five buy-side firms have CSAs in some capacity, and over 50% of CSA program volume is executed electronically. The number of CSA brokers each buy-side firm works with varies greatly, from a mere handful to close to 50 brokers.
CSA aggregation platforms are administrative services, utilizing technology and broker to broker communications to manage CSA trading commissions across multiple brokers, track credit balances, and submit research payment requests in one place. These platforms are a unique element of the patchwork CSA regulatory landscape as client commissions are utilized to pay for them, yet they are not technically either trade execution or equity research. In other words, these are client commissions being spent to pay for a service not directly involved with the investment decision making process.
History
Section 28 (e) mandates that a broker dealer providing research be involved in “effecting” the trade. The 2006 SEC soft dollar interpretive release clarified these terms and declared that the 28 (e) safe harbor is available to an asset manager when two brokers share a commission, if both those brokers are involved in effecting transactions and one or both are providing research. CSA brokers fulfill the “effecting” requirement by executing, clearing, and settling trades.
The SEC articulated a 4-prong functional approach to allow the CSA aggregation broker to also fulfill the “effecting” requirement, the most popular prong being “monitor and respond to customer comments concerning the trading process”. When sharing a commission for “providing” research, that term was expanded to include brokers who “pay the research preparer directly”. This affirmed the aggregation model, as CSA aggregators are not creating research, but simply paying a third-party research provider directly upon instruction from the asset manager.
Economics
CSA aggregators share the execution component of a CSA trade with the executing CSA broker. Rates vary depending on several factors (client, trading channel, trade volume, etc.), but the range is typically 4 mils per share (.0004 cents per share) up to 10 mils per share (.0010 cents per share, or 1/10th of a cent per share). For example, on a 4 cent CSA trade with a 50/50 execution/research split and a 7 mil “toll charge”, the CSA executing broker keeps 1.93 cents per share. The CSA aggregator receives 0.0007 cent per share, and the asset manager receives 2 cents per share in their CSA credit balance. On International trades, the average toll charge is ¼ bps.
These “mils” can add up…fast. If that particular asset manager is executing 10 million CSA shares per month with that CSA broker, the CSA aggregator is paid $7000 per month, or $84,000 per year. Multiply across 15 CSA brokers (assuming identical trade levels) and the commission revenue for the CSA aggregator from one client is a staggering $1,260,000 for an administrative function that is the same regardless of share volume.
Crucially, these client commissions are taken directly from the CSA broker, reducing asset manager revenue and service levels, including research and trading allocations.
The Problem-Excessive Client Commission Costs:
The problem with this model is excessive costs and overpayment of client commissions. Payment to the CSA aggregator increases as CSA trading volume increases, in some cases dramatically. However, the operating cost of administering the CSA program is essentially the same. The payment to the CSA aggregator can quickly grow out of proportion to the cost associated with managing a client’s research payments, sometimes by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In a declining margin environment for trading equities (especially using electronic venues), the expense of the current CSA aggregation pricing model is unsustainable. A 5 mil aggregation fee on a 50 mil electronic trade is 10% on every share. In addition, the opaque nature of the current pricing model leads to cost uncertainty, a lack of transparency, client inconsistency, regulatory risk, and unnecessary volatility across time.
The Solution-Bring CSA Aggregation Cost Back to Reality
At S&P Global Market Intelligence, we provide a best-in-class CSA aggregation platform, free to the asset manager and with a flat annual CSA broker connection fee that does not increase based on trading volume. Our platform is supported by a consortium that includes Bank of America, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and UBS Investment Bank, along with other large leading broker/dealers.
This platform is directly tethered to the actual cost of managing a CSA aggregation system, including offering discounts for low volume CSA brokers. Our pricing can slash CSA aggregation costs across the board, and in certain cases by up to 90%. We are not a broker/dealer and cannot compete for order flow.
It is important for the buy side to review their spend on these CSA aggregation platforms to confirm they are not overpaying with client commissions.
Reducing the excessive cost of CSA aggregation is a triple win as it benefits asset owners, asset managers, and CSA brokers together.
Research unbundling has delinked research cost from trade volume, and it’s time for the unbundling of CSA aggregation cost from trade volume as well.
Contact Us
For more information or to schedule a demo, please reach out to Lansing.gatrell@spglobal.com
Visit s&pglobal.com/researchmanager.com for more information.
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