Since taking the helm at the Securities and Exchange Commission in April 2021, Gary Gensler has initiated a wide-ranging set of rules, according to ISDA IQ.
“We’ve already proposed and adopted more than 40 items during my time here. More than three quarters of those are well into the implementation phase and have not been challenged in court,” Gensler told ISDA IQ in an interview.
“We recently halved the US settlement cycle for equities and corporate and municipal bonds, along with Canada and Mexico. We’ve adopted and implemented some really critical items related to corporate governance. We’ve taken some very important steps in cyber, both for companies and issuers that have material cyber events and, more recently, for individuals,” he said.
“We’ve adopted and are working with clearing houses and market participants on implementation of some key reforms in the Treasury market related to central clearing,” he said.
“We’ve addressed some of the repeated instabilities in money market funds and adopted rules last year that are still being implemented. We adopted rules on truth in advertising for registered investment companies and we have updated a 24-year old rule in that area,” he added.
ISDA IQ said that there has been an active debate about the regulation of crypto assets, and whether they should be considered as securities. When asked what is the appropriate model of regulation for this market, Chair Gensler said: “Without prejudging any one asset, it’s pretty straightforward: most crypto assets are likely to be securities and should be regulated as such.”
Gensler said there are 15,000-20,000 tokens and there’s nothing incompatible about the accounting ledger they’re stored on with the securities laws.
“The principle is consistent – it’s about making proper disclosure to investors so they can decide whether they want to buy or sell a particular crypto asset,” he said.
In July 2023, the SEC proposed rules to require broker-dealers and investment advisers to take steps to address conflicts of interest associated with the use of predictive data analytics and similar technologies. When ISDA IQ asked how the SEC is approaching the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), Chair Gensler replied that AI is among the most transformative technologies of our time.
“It’s already being used in finance to protect customers from fraud, to survey markets and for compliance with anti-money laundering and sanctions regimes,” he said.
“It’s used by traders to assess the markets, by investment advisers to set up robo-advising applications and by insurance companies for claims processing,” he said.
“It’s used by all sorts of financial institutions for opening accounts, and I think it will lead to significant changes in corporate issuance and risks and opportunities in different parts of the economy,” he added.
“Our role here at the SEC remains consistent – it’s all about making sure firms disclose the material information that is needed and that those disclosures are not misleading,” he said.
“Just as in other areas of transition, sometimes folks will exaggerate what they’re doing with this new technology, whether it’s an investment adviser bragging about the use of AI when they’re not really using it or a company that says it’s doing something but it’s not true.”
We need to beware of misleading the public in any material way – so-called AI washing. Fraud is fraud and bad actors will try to use new technologies to do bad things. That’s been true since antiquity. If firms are using an AI model, they shouldn’t think they can now do a bad thing and blame it on the model. If you deploy the model, you have a certain responsibility and obligation, particularly if you’re a fiduciary or advising people.
“If you’re using a model to front run or manipulate a market or perpetrate a fraud, there’s still a human somewhere who is responsible. Finally, we have a proposal outstanding about potential conflicts,” Gensler said.
“If you’re using an algorithm that’s putting the investment adviser or the broker-dealer into the mix of your engagement with customers, the basic concept in the US is that you’ve got to put the investor first. You must make sure the algorithm hasn’t got it the other way around by putting the investment adviser or broker-dealer first,” he said.
The three areas of focus for the SEC are AI washing, fraud and deception, and conflicts, according to Chair Gensler.
“But I also think there’s a risk that goes well beyond the US, which is that the use of AI will lead to certain fragilities in capital markets. That is why both the models and the data are likely to end up being quite centralised,” he noted.
“We already have a system in the US where there are three large cloud providers, two of which are used by around 75% of the financial sector. There are natural economics of networks that are at play, and that is likely to also happen with AI. If everyone relies on the same model or the same data set, this could drive the market to a bad place, but that’s a challenge we all share,” he said.
The interview also discussed the Treasury market reforms, the climate-related disclosures, cross-margining arrangements, as well as the SEC’s proposal on safeguarding advisory client assets.
Read the full interview here
Beyond Fundamental Analysis: What Does it Take for Active Traders to Get an Edge in Stock Markets?
By David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy, TradeStation
Volatility may be an everyday occurrence in global markets, while it can make life difficult for traders to decisively determine where stock prices are headed. But active traders who look beyond fundamental analysis by working within a framework, can often quickly understand any business, in any sector. Going outside traditional comfort zones can help traders unravel the mystery as to what’s moving prices that may be a route to profitable trades. Here’s why.
For active traders, price action reigns supreme. Whether trading on momentum or dissecting chart patterns, the “why” behind stock movement often takes a backseat to the fact it is moving at all. But here’s the kicker: understanding the major forces behind those moves – like economics and market fundamentals – can be a game-changer. Breaking down the drivers underlying price swings can offer a new perspective and an extra edge, morphing chaos into structured opportunity. It’s another potential tool in the arsenal that can help lead to more informed trades.
Using a playbook to identify stocks that are signaling a breakout provides an unemotional mindset for active traders to help decide whether a trade is good or bad. This eliminates some of the need to pore over analysts’ reports and time-consuming research that, in many situations, can be overwhelming and might limit how quickly a trader can react.
Instead, active traders working against a roadmap are often better positioned to act on sudden changes in sentiment toward individual stocks or the overall market. One could liken this mindset to how triaging takes place in the ER to quickly decide which patients need the most immediate help. Traders who adopt a framework can quickly wrap their heads around understanding what is needed to make trading decisions.
So what does this framework look like?
Here are seven catalysts that can help give traders a head start. Let’s call this framework ‘The Catalyzers.’
Let’s take a look at some recent examples of the system in action.
Volumes
GenAI has led to a surge in investor appetite for tech stocks. NVIDIA has become a sales growth machine and a bellwether for the AI sector. Since early 2023, the chipmaker’s GPU quarterly revenues have stunned markets, achieving a blistering 265% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of last year. That capped increases of 206% and 101% in the two preceding quarters, and the growth story has continued this year. With its stock price up around 3000% since 2019, NVIDIA is a prime example of how changes in volumes can propel stock prices.
Margins
Meta has cut around 13% of its workforce during the last year. The tech giant is engaged in an ongoing round of belt-tightening that with the reduction in headcount, has substantially boosted profits. For example, Meta’s net income more than tripled to $14 billion, or $5.33 per share, from $4.65 billion, or $1.76 per share, a year earlier when it reported its Q4 2023 earnings in February of this year. Taken together Meta’s actions saw profits rise faster than revenues as a result of the cost cutting measures. The surge in profits also led Meta to declare a dividend and signal that it would be buying back more stock, a strategic development which is discussed below.
Macroeconomic events
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September and is signaling another 50 basis points could take place this year. Rising interest rates led to a bear market in 2022, but lower inflation has since improved the macro rate outlook, allowing the stock market to recover. This clearly demonstrates how the macro environment can impact stock prices. Additionally, interest rates are a proxy for sentiment surrounding small caps and gold prices. With expectations that the Fed will continue to reduce rates into 2025, and the looming U.S. presidential election in November, these are potentially market-moving developments that could transcend individual companies. A spike in oil prices could also be a major event that may impact stock markets.
Strategic developments
Kellanova (K), a leading company in global snacking, international cereals and noodles, North American plant-based foods and frozen breakfast foods, recently agreed to be acquired by Mars, Incorporated, for a total consideration of $35.9 billion. Kellanova shareholders will receive $83.50 per share in cash, which represents a 33% premium to the stock’s closing price as of August 2, 2024. This acquisition was made possible by Kellanova’s prior spinoff, which unlocked value and breathed new life into what was considered ‘dead money.’ For active traders, the transaction could present some interesting trading opportunities.
Business transformation
Walmart reported strong sales and beat estimates in its latest quarterly earnings report. Of note was a 21% year-on-year increase in e-commerce revenues and is an example of a business undergoing transformation. Walmart is embracing tech in a big way, including the use of generative AI. Using Large Language Models (LLMs), Walmart was able to create or improve 850 million data sets – a task that would have required 100 times the current headcount to analyze everything from shelf trends to customer buying habits. With Amazon in its sights, Walmart is overhauling its business model.
With so much noise in financial markets, understanding what’s moving prices can help traders evaluate stocks in sectors that they may not usually consider. Using the ‘triage’ methodology alleviates some of the need for detailed analysis, potentially helping active traders to quickly determine a plan that might be a pathway to higher returns.